Predicting the Future
Readers love thinking about what might happen, futuristic technology, alternate realities, and futuristic issues. The problem with this line of thought is that life has a strange way of not following our predictions. Let’s look at a simple example. I predict the stock market will rise tomorrow. This simple prediction has a yes/no answer, meaning that I have a 50% chance of being correct, but when I try it the next day, I have the same 50% chance. Eventually, my luck will run out, and my prediction will fail.
What if we could predict the future? Life would be boring because we know everything. This means there is no need to play sports, gamble, or watch the news. Conversely, there would be no wars, car accidents, or crime. Amusing tradeoffs.
Let’s explore a basic example. A few weeks ago, I got a flat tire. How could I have predicted that minor event? Math can answer this question. On average, cars get X number of flat tires per year, which translates to having a Y% chance that day. Given the types of roads I travel and the number of flats I have had over the last ten years, I estimate my daily odds at 1:500 or a 0.2% chance of getting a flat tire. Of course, we accept that this percentage is an estimate, not a prediction. Why did my number come up that particular day? My luck simply ran out.
This 0.2% situation is understandable at a basic level (we accept that cars get flat tires), yet I cannot predict it. A random nail ended up on the road. I chose to travel down, and I happened to drive over it.
What about a non-random surprise? It took thousands of people many months to plan the Pearl Harbor attack. Every participant knew the attack would occur and chose not to share this information. Could that large event have been predicted? History records show that many sources of information were ignored, and thus, the attack came as a surprise.
Of course, our lack of ability to predict the future does not prevent authors/screenwriters from trying their best. We even have futuristic shows like The Jetsons. The problem with such plots is their futuristic predictions are largely incorrect. In the ‘50s, writers predicted flying cars, atomic wars, space travel to distant planets, thinking computers, robots, and perfect health. I’m still waiting on those flying cars….
In addition, the ‘50s authors failed to predict so many amazing things. We now have powerful cell phones, and the world has watched the rise/fall/rise of Russia. However, our society is mostly the same, and the predicted atomic wars did not occur. Not much drama.
Where is the disconnect? Let’s look at the single topic of computers. In the ‘50s, they were huge and expensive. It seemed reasonable that they would evolve to be smaller and faster—however, the people who imagined what they could do misunderstood computer basics.
A computer’s heart is a processor that runs software limited to available information and programming logic. The prediction that computers will “think” like us is flawed. This is because a person can imagine, explore, and come to wild conclusions far beyond available information and logic. Computers will never be able to act with such chaos. Yet, authors and screenwriters continue to ignore this fundamental fact when they predict the future.
What about Siri and Amazon Echo? Sure, they can answer some questions but fall far short on others. While this AI technology is getting better by leaps and bounds, the word is abstract, which means that many answers, lines of thought, and abilities will be far outside the reach of AI.
And what about this fantastic future? Life 100 years from now will be 10% awesome and 90% the same. People will still put on socks one foot at a time, drive cars with wheels, go to work with lousy bosses, eat food from farms, go to school with teachers, and sleep on beds. What if aliens land? Those aliens will be from planets that are 30% amazing and 70% the same as us. Their alien children will go to boring alien schools with alien teachers who go home and sleep in their alien beads after eating alien food grown on alien farms.
One last thought on this topic. In the Dick Tracy comic strip, Dick used a communication watch. Wow, just like an Apple Watch with Skype. Yay, the predictions did come true! Hold on. While visually similar, they are not at all the same. The Dick Tracy watch is an extension of television and radio. Dick Tracy uses his watch to communicate directly to his boss over the radio. He cannot call up a random person and have a visual conversation as we can with a smartwatch.
Overall, a smartwatch is not a communication device. Instead, it allows many applications to interact with the user, with one of them being for visual communication. Could the author of Dick Tracy have predicted this device? No, because it took many technological leaps to get to a smartwatch, far more than could have been predicted.
Where does this lead us? Reading stories that take place in the future is exciting, but they will never be accurate, which is fine because accurately predicting the future would be creepy.
Will I attempt to write stories set in the distant future? Of course. Predicting the future is fun. Plus, it is easy. The future has not happened yet, and who is to say I am wrong until we get there?
You’re the best -Bill
October 16 2019 Updated September 15, 2024
What if we could predict the future? Life would be boring because we know everything. This means there is no need to play sports, gamble, or watch the news. Conversely, there would be no wars, car accidents, or crime. Amusing tradeoffs.
Let’s explore a basic example. A few weeks ago, I got a flat tire. How could I have predicted that minor event? Math can answer this question. On average, cars get X number of flat tires per year, which translates to having a Y% chance that day. Given the types of roads I travel and the number of flats I have had over the last ten years, I estimate my daily odds at 1:500 or a 0.2% chance of getting a flat tire. Of course, we accept that this percentage is an estimate, not a prediction. Why did my number come up that particular day? My luck simply ran out.
This 0.2% situation is understandable at a basic level (we accept that cars get flat tires), yet I cannot predict it. A random nail ended up on the road. I chose to travel down, and I happened to drive over it.
What about a non-random surprise? It took thousands of people many months to plan the Pearl Harbor attack. Every participant knew the attack would occur and chose not to share this information. Could that large event have been predicted? History records show that many sources of information were ignored, and thus, the attack came as a surprise.
Of course, our lack of ability to predict the future does not prevent authors/screenwriters from trying their best. We even have futuristic shows like The Jetsons. The problem with such plots is their futuristic predictions are largely incorrect. In the ‘50s, writers predicted flying cars, atomic wars, space travel to distant planets, thinking computers, robots, and perfect health. I’m still waiting on those flying cars….
In addition, the ‘50s authors failed to predict so many amazing things. We now have powerful cell phones, and the world has watched the rise/fall/rise of Russia. However, our society is mostly the same, and the predicted atomic wars did not occur. Not much drama.
Where is the disconnect? Let’s look at the single topic of computers. In the ‘50s, they were huge and expensive. It seemed reasonable that they would evolve to be smaller and faster—however, the people who imagined what they could do misunderstood computer basics.
A computer’s heart is a processor that runs software limited to available information and programming logic. The prediction that computers will “think” like us is flawed. This is because a person can imagine, explore, and come to wild conclusions far beyond available information and logic. Computers will never be able to act with such chaos. Yet, authors and screenwriters continue to ignore this fundamental fact when they predict the future.
What about Siri and Amazon Echo? Sure, they can answer some questions but fall far short on others. While this AI technology is getting better by leaps and bounds, the word is abstract, which means that many answers, lines of thought, and abilities will be far outside the reach of AI.
And what about this fantastic future? Life 100 years from now will be 10% awesome and 90% the same. People will still put on socks one foot at a time, drive cars with wheels, go to work with lousy bosses, eat food from farms, go to school with teachers, and sleep on beds. What if aliens land? Those aliens will be from planets that are 30% amazing and 70% the same as us. Their alien children will go to boring alien schools with alien teachers who go home and sleep in their alien beads after eating alien food grown on alien farms.
One last thought on this topic. In the Dick Tracy comic strip, Dick used a communication watch. Wow, just like an Apple Watch with Skype. Yay, the predictions did come true! Hold on. While visually similar, they are not at all the same. The Dick Tracy watch is an extension of television and radio. Dick Tracy uses his watch to communicate directly to his boss over the radio. He cannot call up a random person and have a visual conversation as we can with a smartwatch.
Overall, a smartwatch is not a communication device. Instead, it allows many applications to interact with the user, with one of them being for visual communication. Could the author of Dick Tracy have predicted this device? No, because it took many technological leaps to get to a smartwatch, far more than could have been predicted.
Where does this lead us? Reading stories that take place in the future is exciting, but they will never be accurate, which is fine because accurately predicting the future would be creepy.
Will I attempt to write stories set in the distant future? Of course. Predicting the future is fun. Plus, it is easy. The future has not happened yet, and who is to say I am wrong until we get there?
You’re the best -Bill
October 16 2019 Updated September 15, 2024
