Writers Failed to Predict Covid
A good plot must have a solid function, such as romance, war, adventure, mystery, family tragedy, or aliens. One popular topic is disaster, and writers often capitalize on it. How does such a plot work? Simple. Disaster strikes! How about an earthquake? Sounds good. Bob was driving to work, and his car slid off the road. “What the heck?” Bob exclaimed. It was then he noticed the ground shaking.
The plot can unfold from there. Bob could climb around the big cracks in the Earth to rescue his family or save the life of a fellow victim. Big reveal! The earthquake was no accident—so many options.
Another popular plot element is the virus outbreak. Why is it a good plot? Every reader certainly knows how awful it feels to be sick. And dying? Every reader goes out of their way to stay alive. This solid foundation has a tried-and-true structure:
1) Scientists or aliens make a virus. Another possibility is that a scary animal bite can lead to an infection.
2) The virus rapidly spreads.
3) For some reason, the government is powerless.
4) A lone scientist finds the cure, or only a few survive.
5) Either the Earth is saved, or the population must rebuild.
6) Done!
That plot seems reasonable, and many plots follow this simple pattern, such as Outbreak, The Andromeda Strain, Dawn of the Dead, The Walking Dead, Carriers, Contagion, and World War Z.
Well, I guess this wraps it up. If there is ever a virus outbreak, authors/screenwriters will sit back and watch it unfold exactly how they wrote it. Yet… Earth has had many virus outbreaks, such as Bubonic plague, Spanish Flu, SARS, colic, smallpox, hanta, yellow fever, polio, and typhoid. What happened? The entire affair was very organized. The government stepped in, quarantined people, found a cure, and saved the people. There was not a lot of drama, but it was a reasonable course of events.
Why don’t writers use this historic formula? It is far too dull. Scientists and governments have also clamped down on virus outbreaks by introducing vaccines. So we do not have to worry about a major virus outbreak. Let’s all sit back and enjoy a good virus outbreak story.
That was all fine until 2020 with Covid-19. What happened? Well, there were two clear paths to follow. We have an excellent fictional foundation. After all, one of the most popular television shows at the time was The Walking Dead. So, writers got this! Or we could use the boring, methodical government response with science, big pharmaceutical companies, strict policies, and an obedient public. We all had the right mindset to handle a simple virus, and the obvious choice was to let the government officials do their boring jobs.
It turns out we looked at both paths and ran away. The Covid-19 story began with crazy news of people dying who went to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in China, but that news was quickly quashed—nothing to see here.
Then, the virus was (almost) identified, again hushed up, and formally identified. Then, the news over-the-top mega-publicized everything. People dropped like flies, but the numbers were radically enhanced or under-counted. The virus spread like wildfire, borders closed, businesses/schools closed/opened/closed/opened. People stopped spreading the virus, and then they stopped caring, which actively spread it.
How did the public get its information? We developed a new technique to spread the word: Fake News! For every fact-based article, 200+ “far leaning, less than truthful, heavily biased” news “articles” were widely praised and circulated. No effort was made to stop the fake news. Until the overreaction, and all news was halted. Then came the overreaction to not having any news. Then, for some reason, only fake news was permitted on social media, and truthful news was actively suppressed. The fake news title wave confused people, hampered correct courses of action for the population, and promoted crazy stories with far-leaning agendas.
Meanwhile, hundreds of scientists have worked on a cure. Did they collaborate? Why, no. Were they successful? Some were, but 40% said they would not take the cure. During this time, 60% hid in their homes, while 40% claimed everything was normal.
A bright person told me, “Every vaccine has a tiny microchip that allows the CIA to hear your words and read your mind.” I am not making that up. What was my reaction? I got in line to be one of the first people to get vaccinated.
What the heck? Why was this outlandish societal reaction so far removed from all the fictional stories? Can you imagine a scientist approaching a Walking Dead zombie and saying, “I have the cure. Would you like it?” “No.” “Why not?” “It will give me autism.”
The screenwriters and authors barely got 10% of the Covid-19 reaction correct. (Yes, a virus spreads fast if nobody tries to stop it.) How could writers have gotten so much wrong on so many levels?
I offer an opinion. Fundamentally, our world has changed, and writers did not realize the magnitude. We now have radically altered information sources and attitudes. For example, when the screenwriter wrote The Andromeda Strain, people trusted authorities, and the news sources were tame.
Now, we no longer unquestioningly trust the authorities (even when multiple scientists prove them correct), and there are thousands of news sources, both real and imaginary. Society is now more self-centered and carefree, even when this attitude directly harms us.
If an “Outbreak” type movie plot had been written in December 2019, it probably would have been closer to the Covid-19 reaction. The plot would have had fake news, people disbelieving virus facts, conspiracy reactions, and vaccine refusal.
The other part that the movie/books missed is embracing the less-than-ideal qualities of people. We often choose the path of least resistance, do what is fun, ignore potential consequences, and try to make a buck. A plot that ignores these fundamental human aspects will never be accurate.
I offer a reference point to show the difference between predictions and reality. There have been thousands of plane crashes since the dawn of aviation. Yet, society now has a different reaction. I am referring to the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. This should have been a normal investigation, as well as a media reaction and public response. Nope. Flight 370 caused a wave of fake news, crazy stories, governments not coordinating, and the media detonating an atomic bomb of news every night for six months. It should have been absolutely no surprise how everybody reacted to Covid-19, but there was.
So now what? Writers have a lot of work ahead of them. All disaster plots must include wacky Covid-19 style reactions. Here is a “new” plot. Astronomers locate an asteroid heading toward Earth and recommend taking shelter! “Asteroids are not real! My brother is a scientist, and he told me so.” Is this plot out of line? Until 2019, such an absurd plot would be ridiculed by everybody. Now? That story sounds like the beginning of a bestseller.
You’re the best -Bill
July 22, 2020 Updated March 15, 2025
The plot can unfold from there. Bob could climb around the big cracks in the Earth to rescue his family or save the life of a fellow victim. Big reveal! The earthquake was no accident—so many options.
Another popular plot element is the virus outbreak. Why is it a good plot? Every reader certainly knows how awful it feels to be sick. And dying? Every reader goes out of their way to stay alive. This solid foundation has a tried-and-true structure:
1) Scientists or aliens make a virus. Another possibility is that a scary animal bite can lead to an infection.
2) The virus rapidly spreads.
3) For some reason, the government is powerless.
4) A lone scientist finds the cure, or only a few survive.
5) Either the Earth is saved, or the population must rebuild.
6) Done!
That plot seems reasonable, and many plots follow this simple pattern, such as Outbreak, The Andromeda Strain, Dawn of the Dead, The Walking Dead, Carriers, Contagion, and World War Z.
Well, I guess this wraps it up. If there is ever a virus outbreak, authors/screenwriters will sit back and watch it unfold exactly how they wrote it. Yet… Earth has had many virus outbreaks, such as Bubonic plague, Spanish Flu, SARS, colic, smallpox, hanta, yellow fever, polio, and typhoid. What happened? The entire affair was very organized. The government stepped in, quarantined people, found a cure, and saved the people. There was not a lot of drama, but it was a reasonable course of events.
Why don’t writers use this historic formula? It is far too dull. Scientists and governments have also clamped down on virus outbreaks by introducing vaccines. So we do not have to worry about a major virus outbreak. Let’s all sit back and enjoy a good virus outbreak story.
That was all fine until 2020 with Covid-19. What happened? Well, there were two clear paths to follow. We have an excellent fictional foundation. After all, one of the most popular television shows at the time was The Walking Dead. So, writers got this! Or we could use the boring, methodical government response with science, big pharmaceutical companies, strict policies, and an obedient public. We all had the right mindset to handle a simple virus, and the obvious choice was to let the government officials do their boring jobs.
It turns out we looked at both paths and ran away. The Covid-19 story began with crazy news of people dying who went to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in China, but that news was quickly quashed—nothing to see here.
Then, the virus was (almost) identified, again hushed up, and formally identified. Then, the news over-the-top mega-publicized everything. People dropped like flies, but the numbers were radically enhanced or under-counted. The virus spread like wildfire, borders closed, businesses/schools closed/opened/closed/opened. People stopped spreading the virus, and then they stopped caring, which actively spread it.
How did the public get its information? We developed a new technique to spread the word: Fake News! For every fact-based article, 200+ “far leaning, less than truthful, heavily biased” news “articles” were widely praised and circulated. No effort was made to stop the fake news. Until the overreaction, and all news was halted. Then came the overreaction to not having any news. Then, for some reason, only fake news was permitted on social media, and truthful news was actively suppressed. The fake news title wave confused people, hampered correct courses of action for the population, and promoted crazy stories with far-leaning agendas.
Meanwhile, hundreds of scientists have worked on a cure. Did they collaborate? Why, no. Were they successful? Some were, but 40% said they would not take the cure. During this time, 60% hid in their homes, while 40% claimed everything was normal.
A bright person told me, “Every vaccine has a tiny microchip that allows the CIA to hear your words and read your mind.” I am not making that up. What was my reaction? I got in line to be one of the first people to get vaccinated.
What the heck? Why was this outlandish societal reaction so far removed from all the fictional stories? Can you imagine a scientist approaching a Walking Dead zombie and saying, “I have the cure. Would you like it?” “No.” “Why not?” “It will give me autism.”
The screenwriters and authors barely got 10% of the Covid-19 reaction correct. (Yes, a virus spreads fast if nobody tries to stop it.) How could writers have gotten so much wrong on so many levels?
I offer an opinion. Fundamentally, our world has changed, and writers did not realize the magnitude. We now have radically altered information sources and attitudes. For example, when the screenwriter wrote The Andromeda Strain, people trusted authorities, and the news sources were tame.
Now, we no longer unquestioningly trust the authorities (even when multiple scientists prove them correct), and there are thousands of news sources, both real and imaginary. Society is now more self-centered and carefree, even when this attitude directly harms us.
If an “Outbreak” type movie plot had been written in December 2019, it probably would have been closer to the Covid-19 reaction. The plot would have had fake news, people disbelieving virus facts, conspiracy reactions, and vaccine refusal.
The other part that the movie/books missed is embracing the less-than-ideal qualities of people. We often choose the path of least resistance, do what is fun, ignore potential consequences, and try to make a buck. A plot that ignores these fundamental human aspects will never be accurate.
I offer a reference point to show the difference between predictions and reality. There have been thousands of plane crashes since the dawn of aviation. Yet, society now has a different reaction. I am referring to the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. This should have been a normal investigation, as well as a media reaction and public response. Nope. Flight 370 caused a wave of fake news, crazy stories, governments not coordinating, and the media detonating an atomic bomb of news every night for six months. It should have been absolutely no surprise how everybody reacted to Covid-19, but there was.
So now what? Writers have a lot of work ahead of them. All disaster plots must include wacky Covid-19 style reactions. Here is a “new” plot. Astronomers locate an asteroid heading toward Earth and recommend taking shelter! “Asteroids are not real! My brother is a scientist, and he told me so.” Is this plot out of line? Until 2019, such an absurd plot would be ridiculed by everybody. Now? That story sounds like the beginning of a bestseller.
You’re the best -Bill
July 22, 2020 Updated March 15, 2025
